Table of Contents

• Did Harry Potter ever get the measles?
• Week 1 and the Search for a Crystal Ball
• 1: Week 0: The crystal ball
• 2: Compartmentalizing the students
• 3: A Muggle Interlude: Models
• Week 2: The plot thickens...
• 4: ...for a week
• 5: Muggle Interlude: Compartments
• 6: A really simple model
• 7: Iterating the Simple Model
• 8: Getting Better at Recovering
• 9: Iteration vs. Closed Forms
• 10: Don’t get them confused!
• Week 2.142057149: Crisis at Hogwarts
• 11: Students dropping like flies
• 12: Getting Better at Getting Sick
• 13: Writing Equations for Contact
• 14: Week 2.142057149…: Crisis at Hogwarts
• 15: The Whole Enchilada
• 16: Comparing Rate-of-Change to Closed Form Equations (again)
• 17: When will the pox peak? And will the tournament go on?
• Week 3: Exploring the model
• 18: Week 3: The mathemagician gets busy
• 19: How many people got sick in the end?
• 20: Do initial conditions matter?
• 21: Does recovery time matter?
• 22: Does transmission rate matter?
• 23: Does quarantine matter?
• 24: Review

Does transmission rate matter?

Students just finished battling (some creature). Transmission rate doubled.

(applet)

Peak when? How many? How many never got sick?

Theoretical predictions