MathBench > Population Dynamics

Stage-based Models

Did Harry Potter ever get the measles?

In this module, we’re going to talk about using mathematics to build models of biological events. Specifically, we’re going to use math to make predictions about the spread of disease. Ever wonder how scientists and doctors predict (sometimes correctly) how many people will need a flu shot this year, or whether or not a measles outbreak will occur? Well, maybe you haven’t, maybe you just took it for granted that they have a crystal ball somewhere that figures it out for them … but you’re about to learn how they do it, anyway. At least the very simple models. In the process, we’re also going to discuss modeling rates of change in general, and you’re going to do the actual model building. Once the model is built, we’ll look to see what else it can predict about disease outbreaks, and we’ll look at some real diseases. But first … take this quiz (if you want) as a preview. The quiz can help you determine which parts of the module to focus on.

QUIZ