The Brute Force method again.
Evil Pointy-Haired Boss (who has nothing better to do than sit around flipping coins), challenges Dilbert to a game of heads-or-tails. In his first ten flips, the coin comes up heads every time but one. Boss claims to be just lucky, but Dilbert thinks he's playing with a loaded coin. Who is right?
Does the boss cheat?
|1. Decide on a null hypothesis -- a "model" that the data should fit|
|2. Note your "expected" and "observed" values|
|3. Simulate lots of data|
|4. Decide what your "threshold of pain" is (otherwise known as a p-value). *Note: technically this should come before simulating your data!|
|5. Determine whether the agreement of the simulated data with the observed data falls within the threshhold -- if so, we say the model fits the data well.|
Verdict: The boss cheats (but you knew that already, right?).
Copyright University of Maryland, 2007
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